An Integrated Model for Forecasting Indian Automobile

Kayalvizhi Subramanian, Mohammad Othman, Rajalingam Sokkalingam, Gunasekar Thangarasu, S. Kayalvizhi


The automobile industry is one of India’s main economic sectors. In recent decades India has attracted many global players in the automobile industry. The industry has significantly benefited from an increase in the paying capacity of the consumers. This has contributed to increased competition in the market. Given that the automobile industry is a very complex process, a tool to predict the future of automotive demand from the modeling point of view is needed because of its high level of complexity and uncertainty. This study aims to introduce a novel integrated model with a combination of Adaptive Multiplicative Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters (AHW) method and Backpropagation Neural Networks (BPNNs) to improve the likelihood of predicting automobile sales accurately. This study is subject to continue validating a model in real-world automobile selling data against existing methods. This model also incorporates the linear and non-linear characteristics of AHW and BPNN, respectively to form a synergistic model.  The proposed model has the higher capability to provide reasonable accuracy in forecasting future sales in terms of average prediction accuracy of 0.974637 than the existing methods namely BPNN 0.9483 and ANN 0.9275. For training and testing purposes, validation is done using the Indian automobile sales data. Finally, the regression fit shows that during the test stage in the car sales data for the period 2016-2017 and 2017-2018, the proposed integrated model is better than the conventional method.


adaptive multiplicative exponential smoothing; AHW; backpropagation neural networks; automobile sales industry.

Full Text:



Junjie Gao, Yanan Xie, Xiaomin Cui, Han Yu, and Feng Gu, “Chinese automobile sales forecasting using economic indicators and typical domestic brand automobile sales data: A method based on econometric model”, Advances in Mechanical Engineering, 2018, Vol. 10, No.2, pp.1-11.

Amirmahmood Vahabi, Shahrooz Seyyedi Hosseininia, Mahmood Alborzi, “A Sales Forecasting Model in Automotive Industry using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (Anfis) and Genetic Algorithm (GA)”, International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 2016, Vol.7, No.11, pp.24-30.

Syed Shahabuddin, “Forecasting automobile sales”, Management Research News, 2016, Vol. 32, No. 7, pp. 670-682.

Kin Keung Lai, Lean Yu, Shouyang Wang, and Wei Huang,” Hybridizing exponential smoothing and neural network for financial time series predication”, International Conference on Computational Science. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2016, pp. 493-500.

Al-Mubayyed, Osama. M, Abu-Nasser, Bassem.S, Abu-Naser and Samy. S, “Predicting Overall Car Performance Using Artificial Neural Network”, International Journal of Academic and Applied Research, 2019, Vol.3, No.1, pp. 1-5.

Wang. D, Cao.W, Li. J and Ye. J and Deep. S. D, “Supply-Demand Prediction for Online Car-Hailing Services Using Deep Neural Networks”, IEEE 33rd International Conference on Data Engineering(ICDE), San Diego, CA, 2017, pp. 243-254.

Stratis. K, Jino M and Michael. E, “Instantaneous Vehicle Fuel Consumption Estimation using Smartphones and Recurrent Neural Networks”, Expert Systems with Applications, 2019, Vol. 120, No. 15, pp. 436-447.

Zhiguo. Y and Devenathan. S, “Examining Multi-Category Cross Purchase Models with Increasing Dataset Scale – An Artificial Neural Network Approach”, Expert Systems with Applications, 2019, Vol. 120, No. 15, pp. 310-318.

Susmita S. M and Megha J. V, “Mining Online Reviews and Tweets for Predicting Sales Performance and Success of Movies”. International Conference on Intelligent Computing and Control Systems, Madurai, 2017, pp. 334-339.

Yong. Z, Miner. Z, Nana. G and Yunjian. J, “Forecasting Electric Vehicles Sales with Univariate and Multivariate Time Series Models: The Case of China”, PLoS ONE, 2017, Vol. 12, No. 5, pp. 1-15.

Junjie. G, Yanan. X and Feng. G, “A Hybrid Optimization Approach to Forecast Automobile Sales of China”, Advances in Mechanical Engineering, 2017, Vol. 15, No. 7, pp. 909-925.

Mahmoud. A, Essam. M. S and Karim. A., “Egyptian Case Study-Sales Forecasting Model for Automotive Section”, International Conference on Smart Applications, Communications and Networking, Sharm EI Sheik, Egypt 2019, pp. 1-6.

Pradipta Kumar Sahoo, and Badri Narayan Rath, “Productivity growth, efficiency change and source of inefficiency: evidence from the Indian automobile industry”, International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, 2018, Vol.18, No. 1, pp. 59-74.

Mahendran, S., Senthilkumar, A., & Jeyapaul, R., “Analysis of lean manufacturing in an automobile industry-a case study”, International Journal of Enterprise Network Management, 2018, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 129-142.

Bharadwaj A., “Evolution of the Global Automobile Industry”, Environmental Regulations and Innovation in Advanced Automobile Technologies, Springer, Briefs in Economics book series, 2018, pp. 1-9.

Jain, M., Abidi, N., & Bandyopadhayay, A., “E-procurement espousal and assessment framework: A case-based study of Indian automobile companies”, International Journal of Technology Management & Sustainable Development, 2018, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 87-109.



  • There are currently no refbacks.

Published by INSIGHT - Indonesian Society for Knowledge and Human Development