Demand versus Capacity of Tsunami Shelters in Padang, Indonesia
This paper presents an estimation of demand and its comparison to the capacity of the existing tsunami shelters in Padang. A combination of horizontal and vertical evacuation plans was simulated with giving priority to the horizontal ones. Demand for the existing shelters was estimated with an assumption that the population is spreading uniformly within the administrative area. It was also assumed that the number of people who entered the area is the same as those who went out of the area at the time of the anticipated earthquake occur. The coverage areas of shelters were estimated based on the distance that can be reached by people within an effective available evacuation time. The capacity of the tsunami shelters was obtained from secondary data. The study found that almost half of the existing shelters in Padang will be overloaded if all of the people in the coverage area of a shelter being evacuated to the shelters. Addition of 37 more shelters with a capacity of 2000 is needed.
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