Multi-Objective Sensitivity Analyses for Power Generation Mix: Malaysia Case Study

Abstract

This paper presents an optimization framework to determine long-term optimal generation mix for Malaysia Power Sector using Dynamic Programming (DP) technique. Several new candidate units with a pre-defined MW capacity were included in the model for generation expansion planning from coal, natural gas, hydro and renewable energy (RE). Four objective cases were considered, 1) economic cost, 2) environmental, 3) reliability and 4) multi-objectives that combining the three cases. Results show that Malaysia optimum generation mix in 2030 for, 1) economic case is 48% from coal, 41% from gas, 3% from hydro and 8% from RE, 2) environmental case is 19% from coal, 58% from gas, 11% from hydro and 12% from RE, 3) for reliability case is 64% from coal, 32% from gas, 3% from hydro and 1% from RE and 4) multi-objective case is 49% from coal, 41% from gas, 7% from hydro and 3% from RE. The findings of this paper are the optimum generation mix for Malaysia from 2013 to 2030 which is less expensive, substantially reduce carbon emission and that less risky.