Dynamic Model of SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Drinking Water Consumption Impact at Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Ecuador

David Carrera-Villacrés, Camila Bahamonde-Coyago, Carlos Mancheno-Criollo, Robinson Mena-Castro, Josselyn Moreira-Pin, María Ordóñez-Ríos, Wilson Sailema-Hurtado

Abstract


Since the beginning of the State of Emergency announced on March 17, 2020, caused by SARS-CoV-2 (COVID19), changes have been made due to the strict measures established on the Ecuadorian territory. Also directly affecting the educational field. Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE located in the Sangolquí, Ecuador, South América, is one of the many universities in the country that had to adapt to the orders of Secretaría Nacional de Educación Superior, Ciencia y Tecnología. (SENESCYT). This is due to the new situation that had to be faced, and it was indispensable to suspend academic and work activities. One of the consequences of this situation was the decrease in drinking water consumption in the Institution due to the absence of civil and administrative personnel. The objective of this research was to present the dynamic modeling of possible COVID-19 spread scenarios at the Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE - Headquarters and the impact it has caused on water consumption during January to July 2020, through official data obtained by the Institution, with the Vensim program. The reincorporation of 25% of the administrative and military personnel could be applied typically, without requiring other sources of supply; if 100% of the university population returned, there would be problems in the future with water resources.

Keywords


COVID-19; drinking water consumption; dynamic model; scenarios.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Y. Liu and W. Song, "Modelling crop yield, water consumption, and water use efficiency for sustainable agroecosystem management," J. Clean. Prod., vol. 253, p. 119940, Apr. 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.Jclepro.2019.119940.

World Health Organization, "Water, sanitation, hygiene, and waste management for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19," Interim Guid., no. July 29, pp. 1–11, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/water-sanitation-hygiene-and-waste-management-for-the-covid-19-virus-interim-guidance.

W. H. O. (WHO), "Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations," Geneva World Heal. Organ., vol. Available, no. March, pp. 10–12, 2020, doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316.5.

D. Aleja, R. Criado, U. Rey, J. Carlos, and C. Tulip, “Modelo SEIR para el Coronavirus Covid-19,†pp. 1–26, 2020.

F. Manrique, C. Agudelo, V. González, O. Gutiérrez, C. Téllezz, and G. Herrera, “Modelo SIR de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Colombia,†Rev. Salud Pública, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 1–9, 2020.

D. Arango-Londoño et al., “Predicciones de un modelo SEIR para casos de COVID-19 en Cali, Colombia,†Rev. Salud Pública, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 1–6, 2020, doi: 10.15446/rsap.v22n2.86432.

J. M. Garrido et al., “Modelo matemático optimizado para la predicción y planificación de la asistencia sanitaria por la COVID-19,†Med. Intensiva, Mar. 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.medin.2021.02.014.

G. Giordano et al., Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy, vol. 26, no. 6. Springer US, 2020.

G. Honti, G. Dörgő, and J. Abonyi, "Network analysis dataset of system dynamics models," Data Br., vol. 27, no. 2019, pp. 1–5, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.dib.2019.104723.

P. Fonseca Casas, V. García Carrasco, and J. Garcia Subirana, “SEIRD COVID-19 formal characterization and model comparison validation,†Appl. Sci., vol. 10, no. 15, 2020, doi: 10.3390/app10155162.

A. Crespo Márquez, "A COVID-19 Recovery Strategy Based on the Health System Capacity Modeling. Implications on Citizen Self-management," vol. 1, 2020.

A. Larreteguy and G. Guido Lavalle, “Modelo multietario y multirregional de evolucion del COVID-19 usando dinámica de sistemas y software libre,†2020.

A. Kalbusch, E. Henning, M. P. Brikalski, F. V. de Luca, and A. C. Konrath, "Impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) spread-prevention actions on urban water consumption," Resour. Conserv. Recycl., vol. 163, p. 105098, Dec. 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105098.

J. Panovska-Griffiths, L. Grieco, E. van Leeuwen, M. Baguelin, R. Pebody, and M. Utley, "Are we prepared for the next influenza pandemic? Lessons from modelling different preparedness policies against four pandemic scenarios," J. Theor. Biol., vol. 481, pp. 223–232, Nov. 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.05.003.

A. Guevara, "Mathetical modeling COVID 19 Loja province," no. April, pp. 0–4, 2020, doi: 10.13140/RG.2.2.15218.32969.

P. Sánchez-Villegas and A. Daponte Codina, “Predictive models of the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain with Gompertz curves,†Gac. Sanit., May 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.gaceta.2020.05.005.

H. Benavides Muñoz, “Gestión del Agua en Época de Pandemia | Dialoguemos,†Dialoguemos, Aug. 05, 2020.

El Universo, “Consumo de agua potable aumenta en Ecuador debido al aislamiento obligatorio | Ecología | La Revista | El Universo,†EL Universo, 2020.

El Universo, “Senescyt suspende actividades universitarias a nivel nacional; Espol dará clases virtuales; PUCE suspende clases | Ecuador | Noticias | El Universo,†EL UNIVERSO, Mar. 12, 2020. https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2020/03/12/nota/7778493/senescyt-suspende-actividades-universitarias-nivel-nacional-espol/ (accessed Aug. 05, 2020).

UFA ESPE, “Inaguración Semestre,†Universidad de las Fuerzas armadas Espe, May 18, 2020. https://www.espe.edu.ec/inauguracion-semestre/ (accessed Aug. 05, 2020).

C. Bahamonde Coyago, V. Hernández García, and D. Vivanco Garzón, “Determinación de vida útil de los recursos hídricos del campus Sangolquí de la Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE,†Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas Espe, 2018.

S. H. Antwi, D. Getty, S. Linnane, and A. Rolston, "COVID-19 water sector responses in Europe: A scoping review of preliminary governmental interventions," Science of the Total Environment, vol. 762. Elsevier B.V., p. 143068, Mar. 25, 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143068.

K. Bravo, Historia de la Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas, Primera ed. Sangolqui, 2014.

Unidad Admisión y Registro; Dirección de Talento Humano, Libro de guardia de Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE. 2020.

A. García, “Estado de excepción para controlar covid-19 y reactivar la economía,†El Comercio, Jun. 17, 2020.

C. S. Sistema de Salud Ocupacional de la Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, Confirmed cases of COVID – 19. 2020.

PRIMICIAS, “Covid-19 en cifras: Ecuador tiene la tasa de contagio más alta de la región,†Primicias, 2020.

N. Norma Ecuatoriana De La Construcción, “Norma Hidrosanitaria Nhe Agua,†in Norma Ecuatoriana de la Construcción Capítulo 16, 2011, pp. 16, 17.

C. D. Rosero-Armijo, “Agua potable no contabilizada en el cantón Pangua y programa de control de pérdidas,†Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE, 2019.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18517/ijaseit.12.3.14682

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Published by INSIGHT - Indonesian Society for Knowledge and Human Development